Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) – South Africa
Market scale and liquidity anchor Africa’s equity ecosystem
The Johannesburg Stock Exchange remains Africa’s largest and most developed equity market, with total market capitalisation exceeding US$1 trillion (World Bank, 2025). As the continent’s most liquid exchange, the JSE continues to serve as the principal entry point for international investors seeking African equity exposure. The market hosts a dense concentration of globally competitive mining groups, diversified financial institutions, and consumer-oriented multinationals, many of which derive a substantial share of earnings offshore. This structural depth and liquidity distinguish the JSE from other African exchanges and underpin its outsized weight in continental equity benchmarks.
Equity returns were strong, but currency effects diluted USD performance
South African equities delivered a strong rebound in 2025. The FTSE/JSE Capped SWIX Index rose 33.0% in local currency terms, reflecting improved risk sentiment and strong sectoral momentum. However, rand weakness reduced gains for offshore investors, bringing USD returns to approximately 20.5% (JSE, 2025).
While these gains positioned the JSE among the stronger-performing large African markets, returns were lower than those of exchanges such as Ghana and Nigeria, where more stable local currencies and sharper valuation re-rating translated into significantly higher USD Returns.
Market depth remains exceptional by global standards
South Africa’s equity market continues to stand out in global comparisons of financial depth. JSE market capitalisation represented 246% of GDP (World Bank, 2024), placing it among the most market-intensive economies worldwide and far above most emerging and frontier peers (World Bank, 2023). This reflects not only the size of domestic firms, but also the global footprint of JSE-listed companies whose revenues and assets extend well beyond South Africa’s borders.
Valuations expanded ahead of earnings breadth
The 2025 rally was accompanied by a noticeable valuation expansion. The market traded at a forward P/E ratio of 14.3x, above its three-year average of 12.9x, indicating that price appreciation outpaced near-term earnings growth (Bloomberg, 2025). Dividend yields moderated to 2.0–2.5%, reflecting rising equity prices rather than declining payouts.
Earnings growth expectations were uneven. Projection of 34.2% annual earnings growth (RMB Morgan Stanley, 2025) for materials and mining stocks, domestic-focused sectors faced more subdued outlooks, constrained by weak credit growth and slow domestic demand recovery.
Sector leadership was narrow but powerful
Market performance in 2025 was highly concentrated in a narrow group of sectors. Precious metals and mining stocks were the primary drivers of index-level gains, supported by rising gold and platinum group metal prices amid persistent global supply constraints. Technology stocks, led by Naspers and its subsidiary Prosus, also contributed meaningfully as renewed investor appetite for Chinese technology boosted the valuation of their Tencent exposure. Telecommunications recorded solid gains, though performance was largely driven by African operations outside South Africa, reinforcing the importance of regional diversification and offshore earnings streams. In contrast, banking sector performance remained mixed, with gains constrained by muted domestic loan growth, cautious credit demand, and conservative investor positioning toward the local economy (Reuters, 2025).
This concentration meant that index-level gains masked weak performance across many domestically exposed mid-cap and consumer names.
Market depth remains exceptional by global standards
The JSE maintained a liquidity ratio of 31.06%, reinforcing its status as Africa’s most tradable equity market (JSE Market Statistics, 2025). Institutional participation remained robust, though turnover was increasingly concentrated in large-cap resource and offshore-earning stocks. Smaller domestic firms continued to experience thinner trading volumes, reflecting selective risk appetite rather than systemic liquidity stress.
A bifurcated market reflects unresolved structural constraints
South Africa’s 2025 equity performance revealed a clear bifurcation. Companies with offshore earnings exposure and commodity leverage significantly outperformed domestically focused businesses, reflecting ongoing investor caution toward the local economy.The formation of a Government of National Unity (GNU) following the May 2024 elections initially boosted expectations of accelerated reform, particularly in energy, logistics, and governance (Business Day, 2025). However, reform execution proved slower than anticipated, with electricity supply constraints, port inefficiencies, and regulatory bottlenecks continuing to weigh on sentiments.
Outlook: breadth, not momentum, will define the next phase
Consensus forecasts point to approximately 10% equity returns in 2026, with expectations that performance will broaden beyond resource-heavy sectors. A rotation toward domestic value stocks is anticipated if reform momentum strengthens and macroeconomic stability improves. Until then, the JSE is likely to remain driven by global cycles, commodity dynamics, and offshore earnings exposure rather than domestic growth alone.
Nigerian Exchange (NGX) – Nigeria
Market scale anchors West Africa’s largest economy
The Nigerian Exchange ranks as Africa’s second-largest stock exchange by market capitalization, serving the continent’s most populous economy with a GDP of approximately US$334.3 billion (IMF, 2025). Following its transformation from the Nigerian Stock Exchange to the Nigerian Exchange Group in 2021, the NGX has modernized capital markets infrastructure, improving transparency, trading efficiency, and international investor access (NGX Group, 2025). As the gateway to over 220 million people, the exchange plays a critical role in mobilizing capital for economic development while offering investors exposure to one of Africa’s most dynamic consumer markets.
The outperformance of stocks has been striking
Equity returns in 2025 were exceptional. The NGX All-Share Index gained 51.19% in local currency terms, representing the strongest annual performance in nearly two decades (Nigerian Exchange, 2025). Currency depreciation, however, moderated USD-denominated returns to 15.3%, illustrating the significant headwinds faced by international investors despite strong underlying equity gains (Bloomberg, 2025). Market capitalization expanded strongly, rising 25.83% from US$60.1 billion to US$75.7 billion in Q3 2025, before closing the year at approximately NGN 99.8 trillion (~US$62 billion) (NGX Market Statistics, 2025).
Valuations reflect strong growth expectations
Forward price-to-earnings ratios varied considerably across sectors. Consumer Discretionary traded at elevated multiples of 62.3x, signaling high investor expectations for continued growth, while Financials maintained more moderate valuations consistent with historical norms. Dividend yields remained competitive,competitive, particularly in banking, where major lenders balanced attractive payouts with reinvestment for expansion.
Sector leadership was concentrated but meaningful
Performance was driven by a limited set of sectors. Banking stocks benefited from naira devaluation through revaluation gains on foreign currency assets, expanded net interest margins, and increased transaction volumes amid higher interest rates. The consumer goods sector emerged as a major driver, led by Dangote Cement, which reached a market capitalization milestone of NGN 11 trillion (NGX, 2025), reflecting investor confidence in infrastructure development and urbanization trends. Insurance stocks remained resilient, supported by regulatory reforms and rising middle-class insurance penetration, while oil and gas gains were more modest, reflecting global energy price dynamics and subsidy reforms. Telecommunications continued to lead through subscriber growth, increased data usage, and digital financial service expansion despite regulatory pressures.
Market dynamics underscore reform-driven gains
Nigeria’s 2025 equity market performance was shaped by a convergence of economic reforms. Key measures included currency liberalization, petroleum subsidy removals, electricity tariff reforms, and regulatory improvements designed to increase transparency and investor confidence (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2025; IMF, 2025). These policies initially created volatility and inflationary pressures, but ultimately strengthened investor conviction and attracted portfolio inflows.
Banking stocks were particularly advantaged, benefiting from foreign exchange revaluation, higher margins, and increased transaction fees under a cash-lite policy environment, while consumer-oriented companies demonstrated resilience, maintaining market share and passing through cost increases to customers across staples, cement, and building materials.
Sector leadership was narrow but powerful
Corporate earnings projections suggest a maturing growth trajectory. Consumer Staples, which previously delivered extraordinary growth under subsidy-induced distortions, are expected to achieve more sustainable 48% annual growth over the next five years as volume growth becomes the primary driver (Meristem Securities, 2025). Financials, including banks and insurance firms, are projected to grow 15% annually, supported by expanding financial inclusion, higher interest margins, increased transaction volumes, and ongoing digital banking innovation (ARM Securities, 2025).
Overall, the market maintains a positive earnings trajectory, underpinned by fiscal consolidation from subsidy reforms, improved currency stability, and reduced macroeconomic volatility, enabling longer-term strategic investment,however, caution should be maintained as continued earnings realization depends on the government sustaining reform momentum, managing inflation, maintaining currency stability, and addressing security risks affecting operations in certain regions.
Casablanca Stock Exchange (MASI) – Morocco
Stability anchors North Africa’s most institutional market
The Casablanca Stock Exchange stands out as North Africa’s most stable and institutionally developed equity market. Strong regulation, high corporate governance standards, and a deep domestic investor base, dominated by pension funds and insurance companies, provide consistent liquidity and limit volatility (AMMC, 2025). Morocco’s political stability and strategic position linking Europe and Africa reinforce the MASI’s role as a regional gateway for international investors.
Strong equity returns were preserved in USD terms
The MASI delivered a 52% local-currency return through September 2025, ranking among Africa’s top-performing markets (Attijari Global Research, 2025). Unlike many frontier peers, Morocco’s managed exchange-rate regime ensured that currency movements had minimal impact on foreign investors, allowing USD returns to closely mirror local performance. Market capitalisation increased 11.9% to US$113.4 billion by Q3 2025, reflecting both price gains and renewed foreign interest (MCMA, 2025).
Market depth and valuation discipline support durability
Market capitalization represents a high share of GDP, underscoring the MASI’s importance in domestic capital formation (IMF, 2025). Despite strong price appreciation, valuation multiples remained moderate, supported by predictable earnings from mature sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and utilities. Liquidity remained stable throughout the year, anchored by long-term domestic institutions rather than volatile foreign flows.
Financials and industrials drove performance
Banking stocks led market gains, supported by rising net interest margins, steady loan growth, and resilient fee income. Major lenders consistently exceeded earnings expectations, sustaining investor confidence (BMCE Capital Research, 2025). Industrials also performed strongly, benefiting from Morocco’s role as a manufacturing and export hub for Europe, while selective real estate stocks gained on easing rate expectations and housing initiatives.
Policy credibility and European integration underpin confidence
Morocco’s 2025 equity performance was underpinned by credible macroeconomic management, strong domestic liquidity, and improving ESG perceptions (IMF, 2025; MSCI, 2025). Primary market activity, including new IPOs, reinforced confidence in public equity financing. Close trade integration with Europe continued to support earnings stability for export-oriented firms, anchoring long-term valuations (European Commission, 2025).
Outlook: a low-volatility anchor within African equities
While returns are likely to normalize after an exceptional 2025, the MASI remains well positioned as a defensive, low-volatility allocation within African equities. Institutional depth, currency stability, and durable earnings profiles continue to differentiate Morocco from higher-beta frontier markets.
Egyptian Exchange (EGX) – Egypt
Reform credibility underpins market recovery
The Egyptian Exchange is one of Africa’s largest equity markets, offering broad sectoral exposure across banking, real estate, industrials, and consumer goods. Market sentiment improved materially following the implementation of IMF-backed economic reforms, which addressed foreign exchange distortions, subsidy inefficiencies, and fiscal sustainability challenges (IMF Egypt Program, 2025). Egypt’s large population of over 105 million and its strategic position linking Africa, the Middle East, and Europe continue to support long-term growth prospects despite near-term macroeconomic pressures (World Bank, 2025).
Equity returns rebounded strongly from depressed levels
The EGX 30 Index delivered a 39.15% return in local currency terms in 2025, marking a strong recovery from prior periods of volatility and underperformance (EGX Market Data, 2025). Market capitalisation rose 11.6% in Q3 2025, reaching approximately US$51.4 billion, supported by equity price appreciation and renewed foreign investor participation following reform implementation (EGX Quarterly Report, 2025). While market size remains below pre-devaluation peaks, this gap highlights significant upside potential should macroeconomic stability continue to improve.
Banks and real estate led sectoral gains
The banking sector was the primary driver of market performance, benefiting from foreign exchange liberalisation, improved pricing discipline, and expanding credit activity. Major lenders such as Commercial International Bank and QNB Alahli saw improved sentiment as macroeconomic uncertainty eased. Real estate also outperformed, supported by recovering domestic demand, diaspora investment, and spillovers from large government infrastructure projects (Egyptian Real Estate Association, 2025). Broader financial services gained from higher capital market activity, while utilities attracted interest on expectations of long-term growth following tariff reforms.
Inflation and currency risks did not derail the equity recovery
Despite elevated inflation and multiple currency devaluations, the EGX demonstrated notable resilience in 2025. Both foreign and domestic investors increased participation as confidence in policy direction improved, reversing years of underweight positioning. Corporate revenues grew strongly, averaging 40% annually over the past three years, reflecting pricing power, operational efficiency gains, and currency-linked revenue advantages for exporters and dollar earners (Renaissance Capital Egypt, 2025).
Outlook: valuation-driven upside remains
The EGX offers scope for further re-rating if inflation moderates, currency stability improves, and reform momentum is sustained. Egypt’s equity market is increasingly viewed as a recovery and valuation-driven opportunity within African equities rather than a purely cyclical trade.
Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) – Kenya
East Africa’s anchor equity market
The Nairobi Securities Exchange is one of the most developed equity market in East Africa and the primary capital market for the East African Community. It anchors Kenya’s diversified economy and benefits from relatively strong institutions, advanced financial services, and a deep telecommunications backbone.
Continued market modernisation through automated trading, enhanced disclosure, and expanded product offerings has strengthened the NSE’s role as a regional financial hub, despite ongoing challenges related to public debt and political risk.
Strong local returns, moderated by currency effects
The NSE All-Share Index delivered a return of 55.1% in local currency terms in 2025, marking one of its strongest annual performances in recent years (NSE, 2025). USD returns reached 24.3% in the first half of the year, but depreciation of the Kenyan shilling reduced full-year dollar outcomes, reinforcing currency risk as a key consideration for foreign investors. Market capitalisation expanded notably in Q3 2025, supported by earnings growth and renewed investor confidence, while valuation multiples remained moderate relative to historical levels and regional peers.
Valuations supported by income-generating sectors
Despite the rally, NSE valuations remained reasonable. Dividend yields were particularly attractive in banking and telecommunications, where mature business models and strong cash generation supported consistent payouts. This income profile helped sustain investor demand amid global risk repricing and frontier market volatility.
Banks and telecoms drove market performance
The banking sector was a key contributor to returns, with leading lenders benefiting from declining non-performing loans, steady credit growth, and expanding digital banking channels. Improved asset quality and regional diversification supported earnings resilience. Telecommunications, led by Safaricom, continued to outperform on the back of mobile money expansion, rising data usage, and diversification into adjacent digital services. Consumer goods and industrials also performed solidly, supported by resilient domestic demand and infrastructure-led activity.
Domestic investors offset declining foreign participation
Equity performance was underpinned by improved political stability, policy continuity, and strong corporate execution. However, foreign investor participation declined to 28.01% in September 2025, a 15-year low, reflecting global EM outflows and Kenya-specific concerns around debt sustainability and currency volatility. This decline was largely offset by rising participation from domestic pension funds, insurers, and retail investors, creating a more stable and long-term oriented investor base.
Key risks: liquidity and foreign capital withdrawal
Persistent foreign outflows pose risks to liquidity, currency stability, and valuation sustainability, particularly for mid- and small-cap stocks. Structural challenges remain around market depth, governance enforcement, and regional regulatory harmonisation. While ongoing NSE reforms aim to address these constraints, liquidity fragmentation continues to limit broader capital formation.
Outlook: income-led resilience with selective upside
The NSE offers a yield-supported equity opportunity within African markets, driven by banks and telecoms with strong cash flows and defensive characteristics. While currency risk and foreign investor retreat cap near-term upside, sustained earnings delivery and growing domestic participation provide a stabilising foundation for medium-term returns.
Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) – Ghana
From debt distress to Africa’s best-performing market
The Ghana Stock Exchange delivered Africa’s strongest equity performance in 2025, marking a dramatic reversal from the sovereign debt crisis and market collapse of prior years. The rally followed the successful completion of domestic and external debt restructuring and the implementation of a $3 billion IMF-supported stabilization programme, which restored fiscal credibility, normalized foreign exchange markets, and rebuilt investor confidence. Ghana’s experience underscored how credible reforms can rapidly reprice risk and unlock equity upside.
A market-leading rally, supported by currency stability
The GSE Composite Index surged 79.43% in local currency terms, ranking as one of the world’s top-performing equity indices in 2025. USD returns reached 81% by September, supported by unexpected cedi stability and mild appreciation as IMF programme execution eliminated parallel FX markets and improved reserve buffers. Market capitalisation rebounded sharply from crisis lows, rising to $13.2 billion by Q3 2025, signalling a partial normalization of equity valuations.
Banks and financials led the recovery
The banking sector was the dominant driver of index gains. Major lenders rebounded as debt restructuring clarified losses on government securities, recapitalisation was completed, and liquidity conditions improved. Broader financial services, including insurers and asset managers also recovered as regulatory uncertainty eased and capital market activity resumed. Consumer goods and cocoa-linked firms added momentum, benefiting from moderating inflation and supportive global commodity prices.
Consistency, not speculation, defined the rally
The equity recovery was broad-based and persistent. The GSE posted positive returns in 9 of 12 months, with notable rallies in March (+10.19%), July (+11.88%), and September (+11.37%), each linked to concrete reform milestones and improving macro data. This consistency reflected sustained capital reallocation rather than short-lived speculative inflows.
IMF programme and debt restructuring as core catalysts
The IMF Extended Credit Facility anchored the recovery by enforcing fiscal consolidation, restoring monetary credibility, and stabilizing the currency. Completion of debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework reduced debt service burdens, extended maturities, and created fiscal space. These reforms catalyzed the return of foreign portfolio investors, while domestic pension funds and institutions after absorbing restructuring losses gradually rebuilt equity exposure as risk perceptions improved.
Outlook: strong recovery, tighter margin for error
Ghana’s equity market now reflects a post-crisis repricing, with much of the recovery narrative embedded in valuations. Sustaining performance will depend on continued reform discipline, earnings delivery, and currency stability. While upside remains, the risk-reward balance has shifted from distressed recovery to selective, fundamentals-driven opportunities.
BRVM (Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières) – West Africa
The BRVM, serving eight West African economies within the CFA franc zone, recorded 25% local currency returns in 2025, supported by macro stability, improving corporate earnings, and growing investor interest. The USD return of 29% reflected the CFA franc’s euro peg, offering exchange rate predictability and shielding investors from currency volatility common elsewhere in Africa. Market capitalization exceeded $50 billion, with Côte d’Ivoire alone accounting for 35% of total market cap, driven by strong industrial and agricultural performance.
Banks and telecoms anchor the regional rally
Regional banks including Ecobank, Bank of Africa, and Société Générale subsidiaries leveraged cross-border networks to capture rising credit demand, financial inclusion growth, and mobile money adoption. Telecommunications operators, led by orange Côte d’Ivoire and Moov Africa, benefited from expanding data consumption and mobile financial services. Consumer goods firms gained from harmonized trade protocols eliminating internal tariffs, while utilities saw growing investor interest amid infrastructure expansion.
CFA stability and regional diversification reduce risk
The euro-pegged CFA franc eliminated intra-regional currency risk, providing predictable returns in euro terms. Cross-border access via a unified trading platform enabled portfolio diversification across eight economies, reducing concentration risk. Retail investor participation rose, especially in urban centers such as Abidjan, Dakar, and Ouagadougou, stabilizing long-term capital and improving liquidity in major stocks.
Lusaka Securities Exchange (LuSE) – Zambia
Copper-driven recovery fuels market surge
The LuSE All-Share Index gained 68.1% in local terms. Rising global copper prices, which account for 70% of Zambia’s export revenues, combined with successful sovereign debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework and IMF program, drove investor confidence and supported market recovery.
Mining dominance and diversified financial support
Copper producers, led by First Quantum Minerals, drove market gains as supply constraints and rising global demand from renewable energy and electric vehicle value chains supported prices. Banking and consumer goods stocks recovered in parallel, reflecting improved liquidity conditions, declining non-performing loans, and a gradual rebound in consumer confidence. Telecommunications continued to expand, underpinned by urbanisation trends and the accelerating adoption of mobile money and digital services.
Policy credibility restores investor trust
Debt restructuring resolved Eurobond and Chinese loan obligations, reducing default risk and reopening access to international markets. Improved fiscal discipline, adherence to IMF programmes, and progress on structural reforms strengthened investor confidence. As a result, foreign capital gradually returned, reinforcing domestic participation and helping to sustain market momentum.
Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM) – Mauritius
Tourism and financial services drive dual-market growth
The SEM operates as both a domestic exchange and an international gateway, supported by a recovery in tourism and sustained growth in Global Business and financial services activity.
Luxury tourism rebounds while financial flows stabilize
Luxury tourism operators surpassed pre-pandemic occupancy and pricing, supported by diversified international arrivals, while financial services sustained steady investment flows through the Global Business segment.
SEM combines domestic resilience with continental exposure
SEM’s dual structure helps reduce risk by pairing resilient domestic equities with international capital flows targeting African growth. Supported by tourism recovery, strong financial services, and safe-haven attributes, the exchange offers lower volatility and political risk than many larger African markets.
Rwanda Stock Exchange (RSE) – Rwanda
Steady growth mirrors Rwanda’s economic transformation
RSE All-Share Index Gained 20% in local currency terms, but 15% in USD terms due to currency depreciation. RSE demonstrates consistent expansion, conservative valuations, and strong governance. Market cap rose 10.3% in Q3 2025, reflecting price appreciation and new listings, while dividend yields remained steady for banks and telecoms. The exchange benefits from Rwanda’s political stability, Vision 2050 development targets, and strong rule-of-law environment.
Banking and telecoms drive investor confidence
Banks, led by Bank of Kigali, I&M Bank Rwanda, and Equity Bank Rwanda, leveraged mobile money penetration exceeding 70% (World bank, 2025), growing credit demand, and digital banking efficiency. MTN Rwanda drove telecommunications growth through subscriber expansion and 4G network coverage. Real estate and consumer goods sectors benefited from urbanization, rising middle class, and EAC trade integration.
Governance, policy, and modernization underpin stability
RSE’s stability is anchored in transparent regulation, strong investor protection, sound corporate governance, and consistent policy execution. Ongoing modernization through electronic trading, investor education, and regional cross-listings has improved access and participation. While growth is steady rather than rapid, reliable earnings expansion, a widening investor base, and continued capital-market development point to a solid platform for long-term deepening.