Global oil price direction. Brent crude climbed to around $112.57/barrel in the final week of March amid Middle East tensions. For Nigeria and Angola, higher oil prices improve fiscal revenue and FX inflows but may increase the cost of things, as these countries are import-dependent. For oil-importing nations like Kenya, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire, they create inflationary pressure and erode current account positions.
The rate cut cycle. Eight African central banks already cut rates in Q1. How far does the easing go? If global inflation re-accelerates, rising oil prices could cause some of those cuts to pause or reverse. Watch the CBN, SARB, and CBK closely.
Earnings season on the NGX. The NGX rally has pushed valuations higher. P/E ratios moved from approximately 14.2x in January to 16.1x in February. For the market to sustain momentum, Q1 earnings results need to validate those multiples. Banking, consumer goods, and telecom are the key sectors to watch.
Gold and African producers. Gold above $5,000/oz is transformative for the fiscal positions of West African and Southern African gold producers. Watch for capital allocation decisions, whether mining companies reinvest, pay dividends, or hedge.
Africa’s sovereign bond market. Sub-Saharan African sovereign bond sales reached $5.95 billion in Q1 2026, the strongest start since 2013. Zambia, Kenya, and Côte d’Ivoire have been active. The reopening of international debt markets is positive, but the borrowing cost matters. Watch spreads carefully.