Fertilizer markets present an additional risk. Around 30% of globally traded fertilizer, urea, and ammonia transits the Strait, with the Gulf supplying a large share of global exports. Disruptions have pushed urea prices up by as much as 50% (IFRI, 2026) during the critical March-to-May planting season. This reflects the disruption to roughly one-third of the global fertilizer trade. Farmers are adjusting usage, increasing the likelihood of weaker harvests and higher food prices later in the year.
Fig 2: Source: Bloomberg, ABC Research 2026
Currency pressures are compounding the effect. Higher import bills are driving demand for foreign exchange, weakening local currencies and reinforcing inflation across fuel, food, and other imports.