Risk Register
Part of Africa Brief: Dangote East Africa Refinery
Key Takeaways
The Nigeria refinery doubled in cost and took roughly twice as long as originally projected. That is the base case for Tanga, not the downside scenario. Investors and DFIs who price this project against the pledge timeline will be consistently wrong; those who price against the Nigeria precedent will be positioned correctly.
The Nigeria precedent, global refinery history, and East African geopolitical conditions identify seven risk categories that require active management from project inception — not after groundbreaking.
